THE MIDDLE EAST MILITARY CRISIS: A GREAT PARADOX

Saudi Arabia is (still) one of the world's major economic powers. Thanks to oil, and not only. This is well known, and there is no need for further details. Like any highly developed state, its armed forces are structured to match. With 247,000 active-duty personnel and an additional 150,000 paramilitary forces (there are no reservists), 917 aircraft (including 283 fighter jets), 1,085 tanks, over 1,200 heavy artillery pieces, and 32 warships, backed by an annual budget of over 63 billion USD, the country can be considered a regional military power. In fact, in the ranking published by Global Firepower, it ranks 25th out of 145 nations.[1] The numbers speak for themselves. No explanations are needed.

Let's look at a neighbor. The United Arab Emirates. 65,000 active-duty personnel, 130,000 reservists, and 12,000 in paramilitary formations, 581 aircraft (including 99 fighter jets), 354 tanks, 300 heavy artillery pieces, and 84 warships. Annual budget: over 23 billion USD. 54th place in the ranking.[2] Another neighbor: Kuwait. 78,000 active-duty personnel, 24,000 reservists, 7,500 paramilitaries, 133 aircraft (including 47 fighter jets), 367 tanks, 78 heavy artillery pieces, 123 warships. Annual budget: over 7 billion USD. 76th place in the ranking.[3] Moving forward: Jordan. 114,000 active-duty personnel, 100,000 reservists, 35,000 in paramilitary forces. 279 aircraft (including 44 fighter jets), over 1,500 tanks, over 600 heavy artillery pieces, 27 warships. Annual budget: over 2.5 billion USD, and 74th place in the ranking[4]. Oman: 100,000 active-duty personnel (0 reservists), 10,000 paramilitaries, 128 aircraft (29 fighter jets), 264 tanks, 168 heavy artillery pieces, 17 warships. 86th place in the ranking, with an annual budget of over 8 billion USD.[5] Qatar: 26,500 active-duty personnel, 4,000 reservists, 5,500 paramilitaries, 263 aircraft (115 fighter jets), 62 tanks, 74 artillery pieces, 125 warships. A budget of over 11 billion USD and 71st place in the ranking.[6] Bahrain: 18,400 active-duty personnel, 110,000 reservists, 1,500 paramilitaries, 137 aircraft (28 fighter jets), 150 tanks, 82 heavy artillery pieces, 64 warships. A budget of approximately 1 billion USD, 75th place in the ranking.[7]

Let's sum it up. What would be the total strength of these states? Active-duty personnel – 713,900, reservists – 368,000, paramilitaries – 221,500, aircraft – 2,438 (including 645 fighter jets), tanks – approximately 3,800, heavy artillery pieces – approximately 3,200, warships – 472. Combined annual budget: approximately 116 billion USD.

It is worth noting that their military equipment is modern. For example, these armies operate Eurofighter Typhoon, F-15, F-16, and F-18 fighter aircraft (upgraded variants), Patriot anti-missile systems, and so on. Given the budget at their disposal, it is clear that they constantly acquire modern equipment. It is a well-known fact that they rank among the top buyers of military hardware. However, it should also be noted that there are shortcomings regarding their naval forces. Although the number of vessels is high, the vast majority are patrol boats and corvettes. There are extremely few frigates and no submarines at all, which raises a major question mark.

It is not by chance that I summed up the figures representing the military power of these states. Theoretically, they could form a military bloc. Formally, an alliance to this effect has been established: the Gulf Cooperation Council, which includes Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman. Jordan is missing. According to the provisions of the treaty concluded between them, an attack on one member represents an attack on all members. A unified military command has also been established. However, we cannot speak of a military bloc similar to NATO. There are no standardization agreements, crisis response mechanisms, force integration, large-scale international exercises, or many other aspects specific to a military bloc. Why isn't this military bloc being formed? It is incomprehensible. Steps have already been taken; the language is common, which enormously eases integration; the culture is common; and security interests are similar, as all countries are in the same geographical area. The training system is similar (American and British), and the threats are common and have recently become concrete. It would be very simple to establish a military bloc. And there is plenty of budget for that. Plus, the necessity was and is obvious. Why hasn't it been done? A major question mark.

Let's now perform a comparison with a European military power (France), presented in a tabular format:

Comparison Criteria	The Gulf Monarchies	France[8]
Active-duty personnel	713,900	264,000
Reservists	368,000	44,000
Paramilitaries	221,500	150,000
Fighter jets	645	223
Tanks	approx. 3,800	427
Heavy artillery pieces	approx. 3,200	83 (!)
Warships	472	166
Annual budget	116 bn USD	65 bn USD

We notice immediately that there are large differences, in certain cases huge. A potential military alliance of the monarchies would significantly outclass France. The only area where France holds a clear superiority is the naval domain, as it is equipped with aircraft carriers, destroyers, assault ships, and submarines. This also explains its fairly large budget.

Let's now see a comparison with the Iranian armed forces, also in the form of a table:

Comparison Criteria	The Gulf Monarchies	Iran[9]
Active-duty personnel	713,900	610,000
Reservists	368,000	350,000
Paramilitaries	221,500	220,000
Fighter jets	645	188
Tanks	approx. 3,800	2,675
Heavy artillery pieces	approx. 3,200	3,800
Warships	472	109
Annual budget	116 bn USD	9 bn USD

At first glance, there are no major differences. In terms of personnel numbers, a hypothetical Arab alliance would have a slight advantage. In fighter aircraft, the advantage is huge. Regarding tanks and artillery, there are no significant differences. In naval forces, we again see a clear superiority in favor of the Arabs. However, it is only a matter of numbers. If we take into account that most of Iran's combat aircraft consist of old models, parts of its tanks and artillery equipment are outdated, and a large portion of its warships were sunk by the US Navy, we find that the potential of an Arab alliance would be far superior to the Iranian one. As for the budget, it is not even worth commenting.  

Currently, the territory of the Gulf monarchies is subjected to drone and missile attacks launched by Iranian forces, without them executing any significant retaliatory operations. And this is despite the massive discrepancy in military potential. It is a paradox! Furthermore, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates previously conducted a large-scale military intervention against the Houthi group in Yemen between 2015 and 2022 (with the ground phase lasting from 2015 to 2019), failing to neutralize this group despite a massive superiority in forces and resources. Practically, it was a defeat for the two states. Yet, this fact did not lead to military reforms. And if any were made, the results are nowhere to be seen.

Iran is far superior in the field of drones and missiles. This is a visible aspect, recently demonstrated. However, it should not have been a surprise. Iranian drones have been used by Russian forces in Ukraine since 2022, and Iranian missiles have been used against Israel since 2024. Information existed, there was time for adjustments, and resources are available, thank goodness—after all, we are talking about the very wealthy Gulf monarchies. Why were no measures taken?

Regarding the prevention of a military bloc being formed, there is a possible explanation. The US has no interest in this, as there are two risks:

1.    Grouped into a defensive bloc, the Arab states could at any time raise the issue of the US troop presence in the area; they would no longer be needed.

2.    An Arab military bloc could at any time turn against Israel.

Even without addressing the subject of a possible military bloc formed by the Gulf monarchies, the paradox remains. Powerful states, with huge financial resources, with armies equipped with ultra-modern hardware, united by common security interests, are defenseless before a state with much-reduced possibilities. Even poor. Faced with severe internal problems and many external enemies. Subjected to drastic economic sanctions for decades. Honestly, I cannot identify any explanation. No matter how much I search. Quite simply, it is beyond me.

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[1] Global Firepower, section “2026 Saudi Arabia Military Strength”, accessed July 27, 2026, https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=saudi-arabia.

[2] Global Firepower, section “2026 United Arab Emirates Military Strength”, accessed July 27, 2026, https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=united-arab-emirates.

[3] Global Firepower, section “2026 Kuwait Military Strength”, accessed July, 27, 2026, https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=kuwait.

[4] Global Firepower, section “2026 Jordan Military Strength”, accessed July 27, 2026, https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=jordan.

[5] Global Firepower, section “2026 Oman Military Strength”, accessed July 27, 2026, https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=oman.

[6] Global Firepower, section “2026 Qatar Military Strength”, accessed July 27, 2026, https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=qatar.

[7] Global Firepower, section “2026 Bahrain Military Strength”, accessed July 27, 2026, https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=bahrain.

[8] Global Firepower, section “2026 France Military Strength”, accessed July 27, 2026, https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=france.

[9] Global Firepower, section “2026 Iran Military Strength”, accessed July 27, 2026, https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=iran.