HAVE THE MAN WALKED ON THE MOON?

PART IV: THE NEW SPACE RACE

Article published on 31 Mar 2021

       A new space race has begun recently. This is quite obviously. As well as the previous one, which took part during the Cold War, this is not just a competition in the field of science and technology. It is a part of a confrontation that the analysts call ,,The New Cold War”[1]. The recent treaty between China and Russia, regarding the establishment of an international station on the Moon surface[2], has clearly shown the competitors of the new space race: United States of America and an alliance consisting of China and Russia.

          Let’s review the related events which happened in the last years:

-       November 2011: Chinese orbiter Yinghuo-1, designed for a mission to Mars, is launched with Russia's Phobos-Grunt sample-return mission; Phobos-Grunt never made it out of Earth orbit, and Yinghuo-1 crashed and burned with the Russian probe, mission failed[3];

-       2013: Chinese lunar mission Chang'e-3 (Yutu); a rover successfully collects lunar soil[4];

-       2015: the Chinese government establish the People’s Liberation Army Strategic Support Force; one of its mission is to conduct operations in space, by cooperating with the existing Chinese National Space Administration[5];

-       11 October 2016: the US president, B. Obama, delivers a speech according to, US would send crewed missions to Mars, by the 2030s [6];

-       2017: some allegations come up in media, according to, a Chinese lunar mission did not find any trace of US Moon landings, so the crewed missions on the Moon would have been be just a hoax[7]; this allegations are proficiently rejected, using efficient arguments, demonstrating that it is about fake news[8];

-       11 December 2017: US president, D. Trump signs the Space Policy Directive 1, “which officially called for NASA to begin work on a human exploration program that would return astronauts to the surface of the moon and lay the groundwork for a sustained presence (i.e., a lunar colony)”; he also decides to establish a Space Force, especially due to the deterioration of the relationship with both China and Russia[9];

-       November 2019: China launches the space mission Chang’e 5, which lands on the Moon, collects soil and comes back on Earth on December 2020[10];

-       20 December 2019: United States Space Force (USSF) establishment[11];

-       January 2020: president Trump orders the deadline for the crewed Moon landing – 2024; most of the experts agree that NASA is increasingly unlikely to meet that deadline[12];

-       23 July 2020: China launches Tianwen-1, which reaches the Mars orbit on 10 February 2021[13];

-       9 Mars 2021: China and Russia sign a memorandum of understanding to partner a common Moon exploration, including the establishment of an International Lunar Research Station; the missions on the Moon ,,could include crewed elements on the Moon’s surface”; they do not specify the deadline for the Lunar Research Station full operational capability, but the Chinese officials state that the crewed missions on the Moon would be conducted in 2030’[14].

Let’s begin the analysis. In 1961, while the Soviets gained significant achievements in the space exploration field, US president, J.F. Kennedy stated that before the end of the decade (1961 – 1970), US astronauts would land on the Moon. After eight years, a US space ship landed on the Moon, with two astronauts on board. In 2017, US president, D. Trump, stated that the US astronauts would land again on the Moon, and in 2020 he also specified the deadline: 2024. Eight years had passed between the announcement and the first Moon landing. The 21^st Century Moon landing would take place after seven years since the announcement. But, on the other hand, US scientists are skeptical about the deadline. Nevertheless, if in 1960’ they succeeded after eight years, should not they succeed in a shorter period in 2020’? We need to take into consideration the nowadays advanced technology and the experience of the mission already performed. One could expect to witness a demonstration of US power, for instance a NASA crewed lunar mission scheduled for 2021, or, at the latest for 2022. Is this because they have not achieved yet the technology to travel beyond the Van Allen belt?

China and Russia have established an alliance to explore the Moon, and the Chinese officials have stated that they would send people there. Do they have the technology to cross the Van Allen belt? We will see, but their reasonable deadline, 2030’ (which shows that the mission could be conducted even in 2039), indicates some reserves.

On 23 Mars 1983, US president, R. Reagan, announced the intention to develop a strategic antimissile system that he called Strategic Defense Initiative – SDI. That would have involved space stations, space-based laser systems, space sensors and ground facilities. Some of the system’s components were just projects at that time.  The purpose was to eliminate the threat of a nuclear missiles attack against US territory and also to deter a surprise attack conducted by the US main enemy during the Cold War, USSR. Some politicians nicknamed SDI ,,Star Wars”[15]. That was the official purpose. Just a small part of the SDI was developed and it was abandoned in 1990’[16], although some of its related devices continued to developed and tested after 1990[17]. There was also an unofficial purpose, which was revealed later: to compel the Soviet Union to allocate more funds for military expenditures, in order to burden military spending put on the Soviet economy, which had already encountered a wide range of problems that could cause a crisis. In fact, it was a trick. US leaders and forces used disinformation techniques, by simulating research activities in space technologies and the beginning of the militarization of space, but without developing most of their projects and strategies. Just a small part of them were developed and used lately. Soviet leaders believed. They increased the military budget, which affected the Soviet economy. This increased the economic internal crisis and contributed to the USSR collapse URSS[18].

At the moment, we can see a new space race. It was initiated by China and Russia has joined it. The goal is to send crewed missions to the Moon. The US deadline is quite short; the Russia and China deadline is much longer. US need to increase funds, in a relatively short period of time. However, there are some problems related to the US economy. This would be the approximate repetition of the strategy used by USA against USSR, by employing the Strategic Defense Initiative project in 1983, but, this time, it is used by China and Russia against USA.

 

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[1] Article A New Cold War Has Begun, on-line publication Foreign Policy, 7 January 2019, on Internet at https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/01/07/a-new-cold-war-has-begun/.

[2] Article Russia, China Agree to Build Lunar Station Together, on-line publication Deutsche Welle, March 2021, on Internet at https://www.dw.com/en/russia-china-agree-to-build-lunar-station-together/a-56819466.

[3] Article China's First Mars Mission, Tianwen-1, Successfully Enters Orbit Around Red Planet, on-line publication Space.com, 10 February 2021, on Internet at https://www.space.com/china-first-mars-mission-tianwen-1-enters-orbit.

[4] Article China's Moon Rover Dies, on-line edition of BBC News, 4 August 2016, on Internet at https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-36972205.

[5] Article America Needs New Mechanisms to Compete with China in Space, 16 March 2021, on-line publication Defense News, on Internet at https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2021/03/16/america-needs-new-mechanisms-to-compete-with-china-in-space/.

[6] Article Barack Obama: America Will Take the Giant Leap to Mars, 12 October 2016, on-line edition of  CNN, on Internet at https://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/11/opinions/america-will-take-giant-leap-to-mars-barack-obama/index.html.

[7] Article Chinese Lunar Rover Finds no Evidence of American Moon Landings, on-line publication Pakistan Defense, 2 February 2017, on Internet at https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/chinese-lunar-rover-finds-no-evidence-of-american-moon-landings.475800/.

[8] Article It's Fake News that the United States Didn't Land on the Moon, on-line publication PolitiFact, 22 June 2017, on Internet at https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2017/jun/22/antinews/its-fake-news-chinese-lunar-rover-found-no-evidenc/.

[9] Article The Five Biggest Effects Trump Has Had on the US Space Program, on-line publication MIT Technology Review, 26 October 2020, on Internet at https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/10/26/1011214/five-biggest-effects-trump-us-space-program-nasa-moon/.

[10] Article China's Chang'e-5 Mission Returns Moon Samples, ediția on-line BBC News, 16 December 2020, on Internet at https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-55323176.

[11] United States Space Force web page, on Internet at https://www.spaceforce.mil/.

[12] Article The Five Biggest Effects Trump Has Had on the US Space Program, on-line publication MIT Technology Review, 26 October 2020, on Internet at https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/10/26/1011214/five-biggest-effects-trump-us-space-program-nasa-moon/.

[13] Article China's First Mars Mission, Tianwen-1, Successfully Enters Orbit Around Red Planet, on-line publication Space.com, 10 February 2021, on Internet at https://www.space.com/china-first-mars-mission-tianwen-1-enters-orbit.

[14] Article Russia Looks to China as New Space Exploration Partner, 15 March 2021, on-line publication Spaceflight Now, on Internet at https://spaceflightnow.com/2021/03/15/russia-looks-to-china-as-new-space-exploration-partner/.

[15] Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), 1983, US State Department web page, on Internet at https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/rd/104253.htm.

[16] Article Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), 18 July 2018, Atomic Heritage Foundation web page, on Internet athttps://www.atomicheritage.org/history/strategic-defense-initiative-sdi.

[17] Article Strategic Defense Initiative. United States Defense System, Encyclopedia Britannica web page, on Internet at https://www.britannica.com/topic/Strategic-Defense-Initiative.

[18] Article Relations with the Soviet Union, Encyclopedia Britannica web page, on Internet at https://www.britannica.com/biography/Ronald-Reagan/Relations-with-the-Soviet-Union.