IRAN – US: THE WAR GOES ON

It comes as no surprise. It could not have been any other way. Because this conflict is not between Iran and the US. Or more precisely, it is not just between Iran and the US. It is a flashpoint on the map of a much broader confrontation. The main characteristic of the Gulf campaign is its visibility, by the very nature of its economic consequences. But otherwise, it is just an episode in a larger confrontation. And yes, you are right. It is the most important episode.

Previously, I posted a piece titled 'Why Did Iran Accept the Temporary Cessation of Hostilities?' on April 14. I briefly outlined the reason why I believed the Iranian leaders agreed to a ceasefire agreement: to encourage American forces to deploy more combat equipment, and implicitly personnel, to the Middle East area of operations. To neutralize them. They gave them a break. To give them time to bring them in quietly. Deploying complex equipment is not a simple operation. Disassembly, loading, transport, assembly, testing, and much more. This is why a break was needed. One that the Iranians, generously, provided.

US forces possess very powerful advantages: a large number of modern aerial assets with long-range precision-strike capabilities; a large number of highly advanced sensors (radars, satellites, etc.); a substantial stockpile of high-precision surface-to-surface, air-to-surface, and ship-to-surface missiles; a massive fleet with ships equipped with modern arsenals; and command centers capable of processing a huge amount of data and simultaneously coordinating large-scale operations. At the same time, US forces also exhibit severe vulnerabilities: ground forces are unable to conduct major high-risk operations, even against technologically far inferior adversaries, despite particularly powerful air support; their air defense is weak, failing to provide adequate protection for bases and troops.

In the current conflict, the American advantages are largely neutralized. Iranian forces have placed their essential equipment, mainly drones and missiles, into bunkers. What could not be moved into bunkers has been dispersed and camouflaged. Moreover, the state authorities and the economy are holding out following the massive missile and airstrikes on a large number of objectives. Conversely, the Iranian military has skillfully capitalized on the Americans' vulnerabilities. They closed the Strait of Hormuz, well aware that US forces are incapable of executing an operation to unblock it. Because the ground units (US Army and US Marine Corps) simply do then not have the capability to land and seize control of the strait area. The aura of invincibility was created through propaganda, especially in Hollywood, where we learned they can even defeat aliens. However, reality is different and plain to see. The most powerful armed force in the world, with the most terrifying arsenals, cannot unblock a strait. No further demonstration is needed.

What is deeply concerning is that the Iranians capitalized on the inability of the American air defense and proceeded with a methodical destruction of the complex equipment deployed at the bases in the area. Anyone tracking the strikes on US bases in the Middle East can confirm that, from the very beginning, the Iranians did not rush and chose to hunt down complex equipment, which US forces do not possess in large quantities and cannot produce quickly. They even gave them a break to bring in more. The air defense systems considered highly advanced (Patriot and THAAD) failed to prevent this. On the contrary, missile stockpiles have depleted to worrying levels. The conclusion is clear: the Iranians are waging a war of attrition. The goal is also clear: to wear down US forces until they leave the Middle East, being no longer capable of fighting, primarily due to the loss of equipment. Of course, the strategic equation there is much more complex, as it involves economic aspects with a major impact on the economy of the US and its allies.

The US has been drawn into this military trap (I presented this in a previous piece). They cannot win the war because they do not possess the advantages with which they won other wars. Meanwhile, their old vulnerabilities, professionally masked through propaganda, are being exploited by their enemies.

Iran is not alone in this conflict. The Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China provide the necessary support for its forces to stand up to the most powerful army in the world[1]. They belong to the same camp. It is a single war between the East and the West. In Ukraine, in the Gulf, and in Mali alike. The intensification of Ukrainian strikes inside Russia, with a visible impact on the economy and the population, is no coincidence. Because it is the same war, just across multiple theaters of operations.

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[1] “How Russian and Chinese Tech Underpins Iranian Strategic Depth”, Special Eurasia, accessed July 22, 2026, https://www.specialeurasia.com/2026/03/01/russia-china-iran-tech-military/.