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PATRIOT. TOO MANY QUESTIONS

Recently, Russian missile strikes against targets deep within Ukraine's strategic depth have become highly effective, according to Ukrainian sources. The only reason cited is a lack of missiles for the Patriot air defense systems, amid a general shortage caused by the US campaign in the Persian Gulf. From statements by Ukrainian officials, it can be inferred that Patriot systems were effective in repelling Russian attacks. Alright, but can't the other systems with anti-missile capabilities in their arsenal stop these attacks? Or at least diminish them? If Patriots are no longer available, can we no longer talk about anti-missile defense?

NASAMS is an anti-aircraft missile system capable of intercepting cruise missiles from a maximum range of 40 km[1]. The IRIS-T SLM systems also share somewhat similar characteristics[2]. The SAMP/T air defense system has enhanced capabilities: an operational range of up to 150 km and the ability to engage ballistic missiles as well[3]. By August 2025, Ukrainian forces had received 13 NASAMS systems, 12 IRIS-T SLM systems, and 3 SAMP/T systems[4]. In addition to these, the Ukrainian army possessed 250 S-300 systems in 2022, a legacy from the Soviet military [5]. Where are they? Did Patriot alone provide air defense?

By August 2025, Ukrainian forces had received at least 8 Patriot batteries [6]. So far, two launchers and two radars have been destroyed, according to data provided by Oryx[7]. The problem is that they are out of missiles. What kind of missiles were used? The PAC-2 and PAC-3 models[8]. And now, let’s look a bit into history. PAC-2 was used in the 1991 campaign to liberate Kuwait, against Iranian Al-Hussein ballistic missiles (which appeared in the media under the name Scud, which was, for the most part, a mistake). The results were poor, with interceptions having a rather low success rate (around 40%), despite the fact that the Al-Hussein was a technologically far inferior missile. In the military conflict between the Houthi rebels and the coalition formed by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates between 2015 and 2021, the latter used both models to combat missiles that were technologically far inferior, with the success rate being disputed[9]. And regarding the ongoing campaign in the Middle East, there is no need to present sources. The Patriot systems have failed to prevent the destruction of a large number of targets by Iranian missiles. One might object: the air defense was oversaturated. Yes, that is true, but a question mark regarding the efficiency of the Patriot remains.

In Ukraine, the first Patriot batteries arrived in April 2023. According to official press releases, the success rate was exceptionally high. They even shot down hypersonic missiles. And they did so very quickly, not long after being put into operation. However, in the Gulf, we see something completely different. Again, a big question mark. Why is the success rate not the same? It could be explained: Ukrainian operators gained experience, and that matters a lot. Yes, without a doubt, that is true. But those same Ukrainian operators were trained by those who currently operate the Patriot systems in the Gulf. And the success rates reported in Ukraine appeared not after a long period, but after a short time. Once again, a big question mark.

There are too many question marks. There is probably something else hidden behind this situation. Let's hope that in the near future we will find out what.


[1] US Congressional Research Service, “National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS)”, accessed August 7, 2026, https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IF/PDF/IF12230/IF12230.3.pdf.

[3] “France orders multi-layer SAMP/T NG air and missile defence”, Aeromorning.com, accessed August 7, 2026, https://aeromorning.com/en/france-orders-multi-layer-samp-t-ng-air-and-missile-defence/.

[4] Kiel Institute, section “A Database of Military, Financial & Humanitarian Aid Ukraine Support Tracker”, accessed November 17, 2026, https://www.kielinstitut.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/.

[5] “Ukrainian Air Defense: How many air defense systems does Ukraine have, and how many are needed for complete security?”, Ukrainian National News, accessed December 22, 2025, https://unn.ua/en/news/ukrainian-air-defense-how-many-air-defense-systems-does-ukraine-have-and-how-many-are-needed-for-complete-security.

[6] Kiel Institute, section “A Database of Military, Financial & Humanitarian Aid Ukraine Support Tracker”.

[7] ORYX, section “Attack On Europe: Documenting Ukrainian Equipment Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine”, accessed July 9, 2026, https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html.

[8] “We Now Know The Types Of Patriot Missiles Being Used In Ukraine”, TWZ 10, accessed August 9, 2026, https://www.twz.com/we-now-know-the-types-of-patriot-missiles-being-used-in-ukraine.

[9] “Raytheon: Arab-operated Patriots intercepted over 100 tactical ballistic missiles since 2015”, Defense News, accessed August 9, 2026, https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/dubai-air-show/2017/11/14/raytheon-saudi-based-patriots-intercepted-over-100-tbms-since-2015/; “Did American Missile Defense Fail in Saudi Arabia?”, The New York Times, accessed August 9, 2026, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/12/04/world/middleeast/saudi-missile-defense.html.

 


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