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THE TURKEY – SAUDI ARABIA – PAKISTAN DEFENSE AGREEMENT. DOES IT CHANGE ANYTHING IN THE MIDDLE EAST?

The recent military agreement between the three Muslim states has caused a media storm. Given their military strength, the fact that Pakistan possesses nuclear weapons, and that Saudi Arabia is an economic powerhouse, this accord takes on a significant dimension in the complex security architecture of the Middle East. Why was it concluded? Such a step is taken only when there is a palpable threat to the states involved. Otherwise, it would not be necessary. Furthermore, the agreement does not contain vague provisions. On the contrary, it clearly stipulates that an attack against one member will be considered an attack against all members. Could it be directed against Iran? It certainly seems so. There are also voices claiming it is aimed at Israel, and there are valid arguments for this as well. This agreement is peculiar, given that the states involved have different strategic interests. Turkey is developing the Great Turan project in Central Asia, to the detriment of Russian interests. Additionally, it faces serious disputes with Greece, while Kurdish groups remain a constant threat. Saudi Arabia is directly threatened by Iran. Meanwhile, Pakistan has severe disputes with India and Afghanistan—having fought a brief war with India last year and engaging in clashes with Taliban regime forces this year. What unites these three states to the point of needing such an accord? Let us conduct a brief analysis.

The agreement actually extends a military pact previously concluded between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in September 2025 (let us not forget: following the unsuccessful US-Israeli campaign against Iran). No details were provided regarding the provisions of the pact[1]. Under this agreement, in April 2026, Pakistan deployed troops and military equipment to Saudi Arabia (fighter aircraft and anti-aircraft batteries)[2]. What did these forces manage to achieve? No results were seen. Military cooperation agreements were also concluded between Turkey and Saudi Arabia, but they only targeted collaboration in specific areas and the export of combat equipment[3].

It is out of the question for this agreement to be directed against Israel. I argued this point in a separate article (link https://warstud.blogspot.com/2026/05/turkey-israel.html). The two states are allies, members of the same geopolitical bloc (the US, Europe, etc.). The Turkish president's threats are nothing but theater—and a very good one at that.

If we look at the map of the Middle East, we will see that, through this agreement, Iran becomes almost isolated. And, according to its provisions, an attack on one participant represents an attack on the other two. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is constantly being hit by Iranian forces. It is easy to understand that, normally, Turkey and Pakistan will take measures against Iran, including military ones, because we are talking about a military pact, not an economic one. Will Turkey go to war with Iran? Behind Iran are China and Russia. Without their support, Iran would not have withstood the immense American-Israeli pressure. The war is between the East (Russia, China, Iran, Cuba, etc.) and the West (USA, Europe, Turkey, Israel, etc.). The Persian Gulf is just a theater of operations, much like Ukraine. Will Turkey risk an invasion of Iran—meaning, doing what US forces are unable to do? Hard to believe. Meanwhile, Pakistan is in China's wake and is helping Iran (link https://warstud.blogspot.com/2026/05/pakistan-iran-land-transit-routes.html). It will not risk a military conflict with the Eastern bloc. It has no interest in doing so. Then, why was this absolutely bizarre military agreement concluded?

The US is stuck in the Gulf campaign. They have been drawn into a strategic trap (link https://warstud.blogspot.com/2026/04/us-intervention-in-iran-strategic-trap.html) that is draining their resources. Iran is doing nothing more than keeping US forces pinned down and wearing them down, by destroying essential equipment and forcing them to consume valuable resources (for example, anti-aircraft missiles – link https://warstud.blogspot.com/2026/07/iran-us-war-goes-on-it-comes-as-no.html). Logically, US leaders are looking for a way out of this deadlock. How? By trying to find a way to threaten Iran. And they found it: a military agreement between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan. A simple glance at the map shows us this. Of course, they share a common interest. Saudi Arabia by the very nature of its situation. Certainly, Pakistan and Turkey were offered certain economic advantages, which naturally arise from a partnership with Saudi Arabia (joint investments, for example, in the pipeline that will transport Saudi oil to a Red Sea port), but I do not believe the benefits are limited only to this. Probably others were offered to them by the US as well. The future will confirm or refute my assumption.

The military agreement between the three states is nothing more than a US move to resolve the serious strategic situation it finds itself in. I believe this agreement will not work. Aside from certain collaborations and diplomatic moves, it will not solve the problem of the US deadlock in the Gulf. It will remain a pact without any realization into real actions. Because it is an artificial construction, forcibly created in an unfavorable context.


[1] The International Institute for Strategic Studies, “The Pakistan–Saudi Arabia defence relationship”, accessed August 11, 2026, https://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/2026/the-pakistansaudi-arabia-defence-relationship/.

[2] “Saudia Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan pledge mutual defense as Middle East turmoil escalates”, Reuters, accessed August 11, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/saudi-arabia-turkey-pakistan-sign-joint-defence-deal-amid-regional-turmoil-2026-08-07/.

[3] Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “Turkish-Arab Economic and Military Cooperation: How Far Will it Go?”, accessed August 11, 2026, https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/2010/12/turkish-arab-economic-and-military-cooperation-how-far-will-it-go.


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