E-11A PLANE INVOLVED IN AN AIR TRAGEDY IN AFGHANISTAN. WAS IT DOWNED OR IT CRASHED?
Article published on 20th February 2020
A U.S. Air Force plane E-11A was involved in an air tragedy in Afghanistan, on 27 January 2020. The SAR[1] teams found the wreck in Ghaznîi province and, initially, there was not enough information regarding the crew, according to the General David Goldfein’s statements, U.S. Air Force chief of staff[2]. Immediately, media presented some information on this subject. The journalists told that the Taliban movement downed the plane and an important intelligence officer, Michael D’Andrea was on board. His position in the CIA[3] was the chief of a division in charge with operations targeting Iran[4]. Later, the corpses of two crew members were recovered from the wreck. According to some sources, Iranian Forces supported the insurgents to down the plane, as a revenge for General Kasem Suleimany killing[5].
The plane Bombardier E-11A resulted from the transformation and adaptation of the plane Bombardier BD-700 Global Express to the military needs, in order to provide reliable communications for the ground forces which conduct operations in Afghanistan. Due to the mountainous terrain and to the bad meteorological conditions, ground forces face difficulties in communications systems usage, no matter how modern they are. The solution was an air platform, designed to be a retranslation point between the radio devices of the ground forces deployed on large areas. That was E-11A plane[6]. The necessity to acquire such a plane became more acute following a well-known failed SEAL operation[7], Red Wings. The details of this operation were presented in a book and in a movie, Lone Survivor, which was produced based on that book. U.S. military experts identified the malfunctions of the military radio communications between the SEAL team and the Tactical Operations Center as the cause of the failure. In my opinion, based on the movie, the reason for the failure was not just the communications. They made many mistakes, but I will approach this subject in another article.
The BD-700 Global Express transformation into E-11A military plane included not only the installation of Northrop Grumman Battlefield Airborne Communications Node system on board, but also the installation of another electronic intelligence system (classified), resulting an air platform able to provide communications and collect information. That was possible due to the high U.S. companies’ technological level. The idea was great: the resulting plane is, basically, two-in-one – a communications plane and a reconnaissance plane. The efficiency is high, because the information collected are quickly disseminated in the radio network.
Analyzing the event, one can identify three kinds of approach:
1. The plane crashed due to technical problems;
2. The plane was downed, but it was about E-11A by chance;
3. The plane was downed, and the insurgents targeted this type or this specific plane.
The first kind of approach does not need a detailed analysis. Catastrophes can occur in aviation, this is not something unusual. And the insurgent group which reaches the wreck can pretend that they downed it, by merely taking a photo of a member near the wreck.
The second kind of approach opens up a Pandora’s Box. First question shows up: what did they use to down it? Obviously, it is about a surface-to-air missile. Have been there other situations of planes downed by missiles in Afghanistan, since 2001? I could not find any examples. For sure some choppers were downed, but by machine-guns and RPGs[8], not by missiles. A plane, especially E-11A, does not fly at low altitudes, where it can be vulnerable to small arms fire or heavy machine-guns fire. If it was like this, it could happen immediately after take-off or when landing, in the base proximity, but in this case there are not any questions or debates. One should not forget that, in the war areas, the take-off and the landing are conducted in a very confined space, right over the airport, in order to reduce the risk of small arms fire attacks from the nearby area. But it was not this way. So, it was downed by a missile. But the US Air Force air assets have modern defense systems for protection against missiles, such as electronic counter measures. Not everyone can down them. One needs a very modern missile, whose guiding system cannot be affected by the planes’ protection systems. If it was truly downed by a missile, there would be a major danger for Coalition Air Force and Afghan Force.
The third kind of approach basically develops the elements of the second approach. And there are more questions. For sure it was downed by a missile. But why did the insurgents target this type of plane? Of course, because it is very valuable, due to the highly classified devices on board. For an insurgent group, this would be like a treasure, if they are able to dismount it for intelligence exploitation (the method is named TECHINT – technical intelligence), that means to collect information by studying pieces of the captured equipment, even they are not workable. There is also the possibility to extract information from the storage devices, even they are damaged. Or, the insurgent group can sell the captured equipment to an intelligence agency which needs it, for instance the Chinese or the Iranian ones. There are a lot of opportunities.
The situation we study becomes very interesting in this kind of approach. We can suppose that the Iranian Forces wished to give a blow to US Forces, by downing an E-11A plane. For this, they used an Afghan insurgent group. But, they encountered a problem: there are hundreds of flights in the Afghan sky, daily. And this type of plane looks quite common, like many other planes, as you can see in the following picture.
Would this be possible? Yes, the Iranian Forces have the necessary assets for this. Such an operation is not simple, but there are some chances to be successful. When the purpose is to revenge the death of a well-known Iranian general, it becomes plausible.
There is another way to track and hit the plane, without involving radar and communications systems: to obtain the flight info elements (route, period, height), but one needs access to the flights plans, that means a spy infiltrated in a command post or in an air traffic center. Basically, this is less probably for insurgents and Iranians. In my opinion, this is impossible.
Regarding the presence of the CIA officer, Michael D’Andrea, on board, an analysis based on pertinent facts would invalidate this. But the details of the case are very strange. This well-known US Intelligence service is, or it was, an official person[9]. The secret services officials conduct official activities, their work consists of liaison activities with partner secret services, protocol, lobby and so on. Covered Intel officers, who work unnoticed, have a common appearance and conduct secret and often risky activities. And no one can find them on Internet. The place of Michael D’Andrea was not in a military plane, involved in a counterinsurgency operation, no matter how important this operation was.
The Iranian and Russian media announced that Michael D’Andrea would have lost his life in the crash. Nevertheless, this CIA officer is, or he was (I do not know what tense to use) an official, not a covered officer. A simple Internet search reveals this fact. That is why, at a closer look, everything becomes very strange. Because he is an official person and is alive, he can come on in front of a public gathering, demonstrating in this way how Iranian and Russian media spread faked news. But this has not happened. What do the Iranians and the Russians know and we do not know? The fact he did not die in that incident in Afghanistan, but he died in another way, can also become known for the public. But there is no information on this. We can conclude that the Iranians and the Russians know more and Michael D’Andrea cannot be presented to the public, due to an unknown specific reason. And nobody can provide information about him, no matter he is dead or alive. It is very unclear, because it is about an official, even he is a special service’ employee. Many significant details lack and the general picture is not completed. A highly valuable plane crashed, there is information regarding the presence of an important official on board, official statements contradict this but without providing effective proofs, and nobody knows anything more. What does this mean? This means that other important details are covered and the incident is just a part of a long sequence of events, which could have a dramatic impact.
[1] Search and Rescue
[2] Article Air Force E-11A Networking Plane Has Crashed in Afghanistan, Top General Confirms, on-line publication Military.com, on Internet at https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/01/27/air-force-e-11a-networking-plane-has-crashed-afghanistan-top-general-confirms.html, accessed on 06 Feb 2020.
[3] Central Intelligence Agency, the main US Intelligence service; Central means that this service coordinates other Intel structures that activate abroad.
[4] Article A U.S. Plane Crashed in Afghanistan. Why So Many Believed a CIA Chief Was On It, on-line publication Time, on Internet la at https://time.com/5775758/military-crash-cia-disinformation/, accessed on 06 Feb 2020.
[5] Article US Air Force E-11A Aircraft Crashed In Afghanistan – Iranian Revenge?, on-line publication SouthFront, on Internet la at https://southfront.org/us-air-force-e-11a-aircraft-crashed-in-afghanistan-iranian-revenge/, accessed on 06 Feb 2020.
[6] Article Bombardier E-11A BACN, on-line publication GlobalSecurity.org, on Internet at https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/aircraft/e-11.htm, accessed on 06 Feb 2020.
[8] РПГ-7, Russian acronym for Ручной Противотанковый Гранатомёт – Rucinoi Protivotankovîi Granatomeiot, portable anti-tank grenade launcher.
[9] Article CIA Official ‘Behind Soleimani’s Assassination’ Killed in Downed Plane in Afghanistan?, on-line publication GlobalResearch, on Internet at https://www.globalresearch.ca/cia-chief-behind-soleimani-assassination-killed-downed-plane-afghanistan/5702161, accessed on 08 Feb 2020.
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