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VENEZUELA – WHAT IS NEXT?


           The subject Venezuela is not on the front page. But this does not mean it is less important than Ukraine. Because it is about an area where the high geopolitical tensions may transform into an armed conflict. At the moment, one can call this just a “crisis”.

The chronology of the events which have caused the crisis, in short:

-    1998: President Hugo Chavez launches 'Bolivarian Revolution' that brings in socialist and populist economic policies, alongside increasingly anti-US foreign policy;

-       2001: wide reforms concerning the redistribution of wealth and land;

-   2002: armed forces rebel and take Chavez into custody; interim government collapses and Hugo Chavez returns to office;

-   2005: opposition boycott parliamentary elections; as a result, parties loyal to President Chavez dominate parliament;

-       2006: Venezuelan government signs an arms deal with Russian (3bn USD); this is a major change, until then the main supplier had been USA;

- 2007: President Chavez announces key energy and telecommunications companies; two leading US oil companies refuse to hand over majority control of their operations to the Venezuelan government, which then expropriates them;

-       2008: Venezuela and Russia sign oil and gas cooperation accord;

-       2008: first Venezuelan telecommunication satellite is launched in China;

-     2010 - 2012: economic crisis begins and expand, due to the lower price of oil, which is the main export asset for Venezuela;

-   2013: Hugo Chavez dies; Nicolas Maduro is elected president, although the opposition contests the result of elections;

-       2014 – 2016: anti-government protests are brutally stopped;

-       2018: Maduro wins presidential elections; the opposition contests the result, as well as USA, UE and most of Latin American countries;

-    2018: according to UN, two million Venezuelans had left the country since 2014;[1]

-   2020: US Department of State offer a reward of up to 15 million USD for information leading to the arrest and/or conviction of Nicolas Maduro, who is accused of leading a drug cartel;

-       July 2024: Maduro wins elections again; US contest the result;

-     August 2025: the reward for Maduro is increased to 50 million USD (in January 2025 it had been increased to 25 million USD);[2] US Navy and US Marine Corps start to deploy forces in Caribbean Sea;

-   September – November 2025: US continue to send forces to Caribbean Sea, including: 1 aircraft carrier, 1 nuclear submarine, 6 destroyers, 3 landing helicopter docks (amphibious assault ships), Marines units, F-35 fighters and electronic surveillance planes[3]; in whole, approximately 12,000 sailors and 2.200 marines[4]; representatives of Venezuelan political opposition announce their support for the U.S. military pressure on Maduro[5]; US president approves CIA operations in Venezuela and takes into consideration military strikes on the ground[6];

-     September – November 2025: Venezuelan armed forces are put on alert; 200.000 persons are mobilized and air defense systems are deployed;[7]

-       27 October 2025: Russian president ratifies Strategic Partnership Treaty with Venezuela[8].

The rapid development of events shows US clear intention to oust Maduro from power using military force. Which courses of action can be taken into consideration? It is not difficult to guess: air strikes, landing on seaside, seizure of key-points, special forces operations. Are the Venezuelan forces able to oppose? There are just few weapons that can cause troubles for US forces. These are S-300 air defense system (12 batteries) and 24 Suhoi-30 fighters, armed with anti-ship Kh-31 missiles[9]. US operations have great chances of success and would heavily damage Venezuelan armed forces and Maduro position. But can they achieve the objective in this way? Less probably. A ground invasion would be much more efficient, like in Iraq, in 2003. Can US forces perform a ground invasion in Venezuela?

Such an operation needs many ground forces, because, in order to be successful, they must take control of big cities, roads and industrial centers. A couple thousand marines is not enough. More units can be redeployed from other areas; this is not a problem. But a ground invasion would result in quite many losses, which is a “no go” criteria for a plan. Nevertheless, there would be a possibility of a successful ground operation: local population welcome US forces as liberators and Venezuelan forces refuse to fight back. This happened in Iraq. Another possibility: military operations are not needed, the Venezuelan forces oust Maduro, helped by US special forces and supported by US fleet.

It is very costly to keep a huge naval force in the proximity of Venezuela.  Three months have already passed and it is difficult to forecast when this will end. On the other hand, many of the air and naval assets deployed there are needed in other areas, such as Arabic Sea, Red Sea or South China Sea. If there have been premises for a successful landing operation to oust Maduro, this would have already happened. But US forces are waiting and it is clear why: the necessary conditions for a successful operation are not fulfilled inside Venezuela, political opposition has not succeeded to mobilize the masses for protests and armed forces are still loyal to government, although, nearby, on the sea, the signal is clear: “we’re here, waiting”.

It is a matter of time and will for the Venezuelan government to keep control over the situation. At the moment, economic, political and psychological pressure has not achieved any results. How long can US afford to spend money and keep pressure, by maintaining forces there? How long will the Venezuelan leadership resist? The faith of Maduro regime depends on the answer.




[1] BBC, article Venezuela profile – Timeline, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-19652436.

[3] USNI News, section USNI News Fleet and Marine Tracker: Nov. 17, 2025, https://news.usni.org/2025/11/17/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-nov-17-2025.

[4] Military.com, article Massive US Marine Buildup in Caribbean Just 7 Miles from Venezuela’s Coast, https://www.military.com/feature/2025/11/19/massive-us-marine-buildup-caribbean-just-7-miles-venezuelas-coast.html.

[5] International, Crisis Group, article The Peril of Ousting Maduro, https://www.crisisgroup.org/latin-america-caribbean/venezuela/peril-ousting-maduro.

[6] ABC News, article Trump confirms he's authorized CIA operations in Venezuela, looking into land strikes, https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-confirms-authorized-cia-operations-venezuela-land-strikes/story?id=126563281.

[7] Army Recognition, article Venezuela mobilizes 200,000 troops and air defenses in response to possible U.S. air strikes, https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/army-news/2025/venezuela-mobilizes-200-000-troops-and-air-defenses-in-response-to-possible-u-s-air-strikes.

[8] United 24 Media, article Putin Ratifies Russia–Venezuela Strategic Partnership Treaty to Deepen Economic and Military Ties, https://united24media.com/latest-news/putin-ratifies-russia-venezuela-strategic-partnership-treaty-to-deepen-economic-and-military-ties-12871.

[9] CNN, article How Venezuela’s aging Soviet-era military stacks up against US forces in the Caribbean, https://edition.cnn.com/2025/11/13/americas/venezuela-military-us-tensions-explainer-intl-latam.

 




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