Skip to main content

  


VENEZUELA – WHAT IS NEXT?


           The subject Venezuela is not on the front page. But this does not mean it is less important than Ukraine. Because it is about an area where the high geopolitical tensions may transform into an armed conflict. At the moment, one can call this just a “crisis”.

The chronology of the events which have caused the crisis, in short:

-    1998: President Hugo Chavez launches 'Bolivarian Revolution' that brings in socialist and populist economic policies, alongside increasingly anti-US foreign policy;

-       2001: wide reforms concerning the redistribution of wealth and land;

-   2002: armed forces rebel and take Chavez into custody; interim government collapses and Hugo Chavez returns to office;

-   2005: opposition boycott parliamentary elections; as a result, parties loyal to President Chavez dominate parliament;

-       2006: Venezuelan government signs an arms deal with Russian (3bn USD); this is a major change, until then the main supplier had been USA;

- 2007: President Chavez announces key energy and telecommunications companies; two leading US oil companies refuse to hand over majority control of their operations to the Venezuelan government, which then expropriates them;

-       2008: Venezuela and Russia sign oil and gas cooperation accord;

-       2008: first Venezuelan telecommunication satellite is launched in China;

-     2010 - 2012: economic crisis begins and expand, due to the lower price of oil, which is the main export asset for Venezuela;

-   2013: Hugo Chavez dies; Nicolas Maduro is elected president, although the opposition contests the result of elections;

-       2014 – 2016: anti-government protests are brutally stopped;

-       2018: Maduro wins presidential elections; the opposition contests the result, as well as USA, UE and most of Latin American countries;

-    2018: according to UN, two million Venezuelans had left the country since 2014;[1]

-   2020: US Department of State offer a reward of up to 15 million USD for information leading to the arrest and/or conviction of Nicolas Maduro, who is accused of leading a drug cartel;

-       July 2024: Maduro wins elections again; US contest the result;

-     August 2025: the reward for Maduro is increased to 50 million USD (in January 2025 it had been increased to 25 million USD);[2] US Navy and US Marine Corps start to deploy forces in Caribbean Sea;

-   September – November 2025: US continue to send forces to Caribbean Sea, including: 1 aircraft carrier, 1 nuclear submarine, 6 destroyers, 3 landing helicopter docks (amphibious assault ships), Marines units, F-35 fighters and electronic surveillance planes[3]; in whole, approximately 12,000 sailors and 2.200 marines[4]; representatives of Venezuelan political opposition announce their support for the U.S. military pressure on Maduro[5]; US president approves CIA operations in Venezuela and takes into consideration military strikes on the ground[6];

-     September – November 2025: Venezuelan armed forces are put on alert; 200.000 persons are mobilized and air defense systems are deployed;[7]

-       27 October 2025: Russian president ratifies Strategic Partnership Treaty with Venezuela[8].

The rapid development of events shows US clear intention to oust Maduro from power using military force. Which courses of action can be taken into consideration? It is not difficult to guess: air strikes, landing on seaside, seizure of key-points, special forces operations. Are the Venezuelan forces able to oppose? There are just few weapons that can cause troubles for US forces. These are S-300 air defense system (12 batteries) and 24 Suhoi-30 fighters, armed with anti-ship Kh-31 missiles[9]. US operations have great chances of success and would heavily damage Venezuelan armed forces and Maduro position. But can they achieve the objective in this way? Less probably. A ground invasion would be much more efficient, like in Iraq, in 2003. Can US forces perform a ground invasion in Venezuela?

Such an operation needs many ground forces, because, in order to be successful, they must take control of big cities, roads and industrial centers. A couple thousand marines is not enough. More units can be redeployed from other areas; this is not a problem. But a ground invasion would result in quite many losses, which is a “no go” criteria for a plan. Nevertheless, there would be a possibility of a successful ground operation: local population welcome US forces as liberators and Venezuelan forces refuse to fight back. This happened in Iraq. Another possibility: military operations are not needed, the Venezuelan forces oust Maduro, helped by US special forces and supported by US fleet.

It is very costly to keep a huge naval force in the proximity of Venezuela.  Three months have already passed and it is difficult to forecast when this will end. On the other hand, many of the air and naval assets deployed there are needed in other areas, such as Arabic Sea, Red Sea or South China Sea. If there have been premises for a successful landing operation to oust Maduro, this would have already happened. But US forces are waiting and it is clear why: the necessary conditions for a successful operation are not fulfilled inside Venezuela, political opposition has not succeeded to mobilize the masses for protests and armed forces are still loyal to government, although, nearby, on the sea, the signal is clear: “we’re here, waiting”.

It is a matter of time and will for the Venezuelan government to keep control over the situation. At the moment, economic, political and psychological pressure has not achieved any results. How long can US afford to spend money and keep pressure, by maintaining forces there? How long will the Venezuelan leadership resist? The faith of Maduro regime depends on the answer.




[1] BBC, article Venezuela profile – Timeline, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-19652436.

[3] USNI News, section USNI News Fleet and Marine Tracker: Nov. 17, 2025, https://news.usni.org/2025/11/17/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-nov-17-2025.

[4] Military.com, article Massive US Marine Buildup in Caribbean Just 7 Miles from Venezuela’s Coast, https://www.military.com/feature/2025/11/19/massive-us-marine-buildup-caribbean-just-7-miles-venezuelas-coast.html.

[5] International, Crisis Group, article The Peril of Ousting Maduro, https://www.crisisgroup.org/latin-america-caribbean/venezuela/peril-ousting-maduro.

[6] ABC News, article Trump confirms he's authorized CIA operations in Venezuela, looking into land strikes, https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-confirms-authorized-cia-operations-venezuela-land-strikes/story?id=126563281.

[7] Army Recognition, article Venezuela mobilizes 200,000 troops and air defenses in response to possible U.S. air strikes, https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/army-news/2025/venezuela-mobilizes-200-000-troops-and-air-defenses-in-response-to-possible-u-s-air-strikes.

[8] United 24 Media, article Putin Ratifies Russia–Venezuela Strategic Partnership Treaty to Deepen Economic and Military Ties, https://united24media.com/latest-news/putin-ratifies-russia-venezuela-strategic-partnership-treaty-to-deepen-economic-and-military-ties-12871.

[9] CNN, article How Venezuela’s aging Soviet-era military stacks up against US forces in the Caribbean, https://edition.cnn.com/2025/11/13/americas/venezuela-military-us-tensions-explainer-intl-latam.

 




Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

  US INTERVENTION IN IRAN – A STRATEGIC TRAP?            I will begin with a straightforward question: what is the current state of affairs in Venezuela? Following the US-Israeli intervention in Iran, this Latin American nation has slipped off the geopolitical radar. Nonetheless, it remains a subject of interest .           Subsequent to the apprehension of the Venezuelan president on the night of January 2-3, 2026, by US special forces during a domestic military incursion, the United States has sustained its naval presence in the region to exert military pressure on the Venezuelan administration [1] . Despite Washington's recognition of the interim government, the continued deployment of significant military assets suggests that the primary objectives remain unfulfilled. Effectively, the state continues to be led by members of the previous regime. It is possible that they are now undergoing a strategic shif...
Post a Comment
Read more
IRAN, US, THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. HOW WILL IT END?          On an online forum where geopolitics and military analysis are debated ( Moon of Alabama ), I read a comment that seemed very convincing to me. I will rephrase it slightly, but keep the essence: 'Iran does not need a nuclear weapon. It already has one: the Strait of Hormuz.' Perfectly true. Control of the strait has proven to be a powerful weapon in the hands of the Iranian leadership . The negotiations, or rather the attempts at negotiations between the US and Iran, have been ongoing since April 11. With no result. The US is trying to negotiate from a position of strength, but it lacks the necessary tools of force. Iran is also negotiating from a position of strength, but it has the strong argument: the nuclear weapon – the Strait of Hormuz. Of course, no agreement will be reached. The US cannot afford to give in, and Iran can afford to maintain the current status quo. The situation is like a fisherman w...
Post a Comment
Read more
  US INTERVENTION IN IRAN – HOW WILL IT END?           There is a heated debate in the media regarding how the current military conflict in the Gulf will end. It is naturally difficult to predict, as the US is at a deadlock. It has failed to achieve its objective (regime change in Iran); on the contrary, Iran's military retaliation has caused it major problems. The facts are well-known, so there is no need for further detail .           The US leadership has just announced a two-week suspension of military actions against Iran [1] . The real underlying motive is difficult to guess. Regardless, this move does not resolve the conflict; it merely provides a pause .           Let us try to identify and analyze the options for ending the hostilities. We proceed from the premise that it does not depend solely on the US-Israel camp, but also on Iran .     ...
Post a Comment
Read more